Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1271

   Mesoscale Discussion 1271
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina/Virginia into
   southern Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231510Z - 231645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase through midday.
   Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind
   gusts through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely
   be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Clear skies and strong heating across eastern NC into
   southeast VA has allowed temperatures to rapidly rise into the 80s
   to near 90 F across the region late this morning. A very moist
   airmass with mid 70s dewpoints in in place, resulting in modest
   destabilization ahead of a surface cold front, and a growing cumulus
   field is already evident. Regional VWP data from RAX and LWX
   indicate around 30-40 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow spreading east
   across the area in tandem with a shortwave impulse. This is
   resulting in 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes over the region
   (stronger with northward extent). Convection is already developing
   over the higher terrain of central NC/VA. The expectation is for
   this activity to gradually increase in intensity and organization as
   it spreads east into the Piedmont and coastal vicinity. Steep
   low-level lapse rates within the moist environment will support
   damaging gusts. 

   There is also some indication of a remnant MCV from overnight
   convection moving across central NC. Given the very moist boundary
   layer and any enhancement to low-level shear this feature may pose,
   a tornado or two also could occur, though confidence in this
   scenario is low. Northward extent of greater severe risk is a bit
   uncertain. Cloudiness persists across MD/DE/southern NJ, and
   low-level flow is already veered. A strong storm or two could occur
   in these areas, especially given stronger flow, but storms may
   develop very near the coast in these areas and quickly move
   offshore.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   34337694 34457766 34857858 35157902 35607919 36027908
               36347891 36827847 37277797 38027677 38217635 38337593
               38337547 38277517 38137503 37657500 37017507 35747510
               35047538 34487620 34377669 34337694 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH