Mesoscale Discussion 1271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Areas affected...parts of northeastern Kansas...eastern Nebraska and
adjacent portions of the Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152005Z - 152230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development appears increasingly
probable through 5-7 PM CDT, including the evolution of a few
supercells accompanied by the risk for large hail and a couple of
tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Modification of the boundary layer, along the western
flank of a convectively reinforced surface front, is well underway
across portions of northeastern Kansas into eastern Nebraska.
Moistening within a confluent regime includes surface dew points
rising into the lower 70s, as insolation contributes to continuing
surface heating. Mixed-layer CAPE appears to be increasing well in
excess of 2000 J/kg, as mid-level inhibition gradually weakens.
While the corridor of strongest destabilization is currently
near/north and east of an axis (roughly) from Topeka KS through the
Concordia KS and Grand Island NE vicinities, this is forecast to
continue to shift slowly northward and eastward through early
evening, in advance of weak mid-level troughing shifting toward the
Missouri Valley (between Omaha and Sioux Falls). As an associated
mid-level speed maximum (40+ kt around 700 mb) noses northeast of
the central Kansas/Nebraska border, low-level warm advection and
enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may become focused
across the Columbus NE through Omaha vicinity, and provide support
for intensifying thunderstorm development by 22-00Z. This may
include a few supercells, with potential to produce large hail and a
couple of tornadoes.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41009827 42049849 42739714 41709593 39819581 39249677
39789781 41009827