Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1270

   Mesoscale Discussion 1270
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...western OK into the TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231415Z - 231545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase this morning across
   the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Trends are being
   monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Clustering of ongoing convection has increased over the
   past hour across the northeast TX Panhandle into adjacent portions
   of western OK. This activity has been expanding on its western flank
   as a modest southwesterly low-level jet is apparent from the KAMA
   VWP. This activity is growing within moderate west/northwesterly
   flow aloft and amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Low-level
   winds are relatively weak, but east/southeasterly near-surface flow
   as allowed upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints to overspread the
   region. This cluster may persist southward this morning into this
   very moist airmass and along a moderate/strong instability gradient
   oriented across western OK and the TX Panhandle. 

   A recent gust to 41 mph was noted at the Lipscomb West TX Mesonet
   site. While some low-level inhibition is noted in SPC Mesoanalysis,
   filtered heating and clearing across southwest OK into western North
   TX has temperatures quickly approaching the low 80s. It is uncertain
   if continued strengthening/organization will be occur given the
   expectation for a gradually weakening low-level jet through the
   morning. Modest low-level inhibition may preclude a more robust
   severe risk if further organization does not occur.  However, if
   this cluster continues to strengthen, some damaging wind risk will
   be possible downstream across the eastern TX Panhandle into
   southwest OK. Trends are being monitored for possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36279956 35419875 34489890 34329981 34370025 34700071
               35350104 35880111 36270081 36420030 36279956 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN