Mesoscale Discussion 1263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...West Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222249Z - 222345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Quickly developing thunderstorms will slowly drift north
toward Odessa this afternoon. Large hail and perhaps gusty outflows
will be the main hazards. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Explosive thunderstorm development has occurred to the
south of Odessa, TX, this afternoon. The overall environment is very
unstable, with MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg, but resides to the south of
the better effective-layer shear. As such, thunderstorms are
evolving toward multi-cellular clusters, with their collective
outflows causing the cells to drift north toward Odessa. Large hail
will be possible with the strongest cores.
Additionally, temperature-dewpoint spreads are on the order of
30-40F this afternoon, with surface temperatures around 100F and
surface dewpoints in the 60Fs. Forecast soundings indicate steep
low-to-mid-level lapse rates, which may support some wind potential
with any collapsing thunderstorm core.
The expectation is that this cluster of storms should not
appreciably grow upscale, thus leaving any severe potential too
limited in space-and-time to need a watch.
..Marsh/Smith.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31010273 31720275 32250268 32490207 32200167 31620165
31030172 30770230 31010273
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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