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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1258

Mesoscale Discussion 1258
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MD 1258 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1258
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Areas affected...Western/Central PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141617Z - 141815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some additional strengthening of the ongoing thunderstorms
   is possible over the next hour or two, with some new development
   probable as well. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible,
   and trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster across western PA has
   shown a gradual strengthening trend over the past hour or so as it
   continues eastward at around 30 kt. Widespread cloud cover exists
   downstream across central PA, which has tempered heating thus far.
   Even so, some heating and moistening is likely ahead of this cluster
   over the next few hours, contributing to the potential for modest
   destabilization and some additional strengthening of the storms
   within this cluster. New development is also possible across the
   southern edge of this cluster, from southeast into south-central PA.
   Overall storm strength should be mitigated by the minimal buoyancy,
   but moderate westerly flow aloft could still support some organized
   storm structures capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Uncertainty
   regarding severe coverage limits higher watch probabilities, but
   convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40768031 41737859 41897776 41787700 41207695 40017783
               39747898 39938034 40768031 

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