Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1256

   Mesoscale Discussion 1256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

   Areas affected...eastern TN...northern GA...and the western
   Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221937Z - 222130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through late
   afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible. A watch may
   be needed at some point, but a more organized severe risk is
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms over northern AL and Middle
   TN will continue to progress generally east/northeast through the
   remainder of the afternoon. Most of the stronger midlevel flow
   across the region is in the wake of an MCV/outflow boundary
   extending from Middle TN into northwest AL, leaving generally weak
   vertical shear across northern GA/eastern TN and the western
   Carolinas. Nevertheless, a warm and moist airmass resides across the
   area, resulting in moderate instability. Transient
   multicells/clusters may produce sporadic strong/locally damaging
   gusts. If a more organized cluster/bowing complex can develop
   upstream closer to the MCV and move into this area late this
   afternoon/early evening, some increased risk for damaging winds may
   develop. A more organized severe risk and the need for a severe
   thunderstorm watch is uncertain. Trends will be monitored.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35458606 36528399 36468212 35778200 34938209 34258265
               33928379 33758510 34048546 34668606 35038630 35458606 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN