Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1253

   Mesoscale Discussion 1253
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the
   Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 221725Z - 221930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over
   the next couple of hours. Scattered damaging wind gusts, isolated
   hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible through evening. A
   severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 19z.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over the higher terrain of WV and
   vicinity are gradually increasing in intensity this afternoon as
   gradual destabilization occurs. Downstream from higher terrain
   across portions of VA into MD/DE, southern NJ and southeast PA,
   stronger heating is occurring within areas of mostly clear skies.
   Higher quality moisture across eastern VA has been streaming
   northward toward southeast PA/southern NJ and ensuing stronger
   destabilization is noted. Enhanced westerly flow is apparent in
   early afternoon mesoanalysis and 12z regional RAOBs. This should
   allow for sufficient deep layer shear for storm organization.
   Thunderstorm clusters will pose mainly a risk of damaging wind gusts
   given steep (greater than 7.5 C/km) 0-3 km lapse rates and PW values
   around 1.75 inches. 

   Some forecast guidance suggests sufficient clustering/outflow
   consolidation may occur in the vicinity of northern VA/MD and a
   forward propagating cluster/bowing segment could develop and track
   northeast with time toward southeast PA/NJ. This corridor aligns
   with the corridor of stronger midlevel westerlies, and may pose a
   relative greater severe risk compared to points further south into
   southern VA and NC where flow is weaker. If this scenario unfolds,
   damaging wind potential will increase. Given modest 0-1 km SRH
   across the region, a tornado or two also could occur, though the
   damaging wind risk is expected to be the primary hazard into early
   evening.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   40497808 40747686 40807597 40757507 40587476 40047426
               39677428 38847474 38197525 37847570 37297702 36447933
               36097997 35748149 35858253 36268338 36608350 36928354
               37748308 38378233 39148140 40177908 40497808 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN