US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1237

   Mesoscale Discussion 1237
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

   Areas affected...South FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121509Z - 121715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible
   across south Florida for the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has revealed low-level rotation
   within some of the shallow, more cellular convection across southern
   FL, particularly near the intersection of Collier, Broward, and
   Miami-Dade counties. These showers and thunderstorms are being
   initiated by warm-air advection, but are quickly becoming surface
   based with the very moist and uncapped airmass across the region.
   Buoyancy is modest (i.e. around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE), promoted
   by shallow but vertically deep thermodynamic profiles. This buoyancy
   is more than sufficient for deep updrafts capable of lightning.
   Additionally, the AMX VAD profiles show notable low-level veering,
   with 20 to 25 kt of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity sampled recently.
   There may also be some ambient vertical vorticity within the
   low-level environment, given the presence of storm outflow and
   low-level convergence that is occurring, particularly to the south
   of the main precipitation shield. As result, there is likely a
   mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential across from Mainland
   Monroe County northeastward into southern Palm Beach County.
   Water-loaded downbursts are also possible across much of south FL.

   ..Mosier/Goss.. 06/12/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   25138100 25568138 25868172 26208222 26718212 27158120
               27238021 26157992 24998038 25138100 

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