US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1236

   Mesoscale Discussion 1236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

   Areas affected...northeast Nebraska...eastern South
   Dakota...southwest Minnesota...and northwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121216Z - 121345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat is expected to continue this

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing elevated thunderstorm activity across eastern
   South Dakota, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska has been
   somewhat more robust than anticipated, particularly amid relatively
   weak instability (500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). This is likely aided by
   the 40 to 45 knot low-level jet which continues to intensify based
   on the OAX, LNX, and FSD VWP. In addition, strong deep layer shear
   (50+ knots) supports supercells and a threat for large hail with the
   more robust/longer-lived updrafts. Storms are forming on the eastern
   edge of the instability plume and moderately strong storm speeds are
   leading to them moving east of this better instability. However,
   some thunderstorms may continue to develop on the western periphery
   of this ongoing activity where greater instability is present. If
   storms had a longer residence time before exiting the greater
   buoyancy, a severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary. However, the
   threat is expected to remain somewhat isolated and only for a few
   more hours. Therefore, a watch is not anticipated.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/12/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45239879 45569648 45359496 44379466 42469539 42149693
               42199877 42449920 43149980 43660016 44739973 45239879 

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