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Mesoscale Discussion 1229 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404... Valid 102053Z - 102300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail continues across the northern High Plains with more focused corridors of greater wind/hail potential noted based on recent observed trends across northwest South Dakota and southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an organized squall line has emerged from a cluster of initially semi-discrete cells across northwest SD. This line has a history of producing severe wind, including a measured 66 mph gust. This line will continue to pose a severe wind risk through the eastern edge of WW 404; however, downstream into central SD, lower quality moisture/buoyancy should result in a gradual weakening trend through the late afternoon/early evening. Some indications of this weakening have already been noted as portions of the line are slowly becoming outflow dominant. Downstream watch issuance does not appear likely at this time, but convective trends will continue to be monitored to ensure the line weakens as expected as it exits WW 404. Further south, a cluster of semi-discrete cells continues to move east along the front. MRMS hail estimates suggests the more intense cells have been capable of large to very large hail (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter). The expectation over the next hour or so is for these semi-discrete cells to continue to pose a large hail risk as they migrate towards an axis of greater (2000-2500 J/kg) SBCAPE. Continued thunderstorm development along the front should favor a gradual transition to an organized line with an increasing wind threat. When this transition occurs remains somewhat unclear, but most indications suggest this may occur around or just after 22 UTC across far southwest SD and the NE Panhandle. ..Moore.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40760474 40920503 41240519 42380502 43210460 44120464 44460436 45020372 45430340 45760320 45990299 46140255 46150178 46050135 45870106 45550092 45140090 44190105 43850114 42440150 41510236 41210283 41060330 40750437 40760474 |
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