Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1226

   Mesoscale Discussion 1226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Far Northern Oklahoma...Far
   Western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...362...

   Valid 210736Z - 210930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361, 362
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat severe wind gusts and hail may continue
   across parts of southern and eastern Kansas early this morning. The
   threat may also impact far northern Oklahoma and far western
   Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing across much of Kansas, along the
   northern edge of a moist and unstable airmass. Moderate instability
   is analyzed ahead of and to the south of the MCS with the RAP
   showing MLCAPE from 1000 J/kg in eastern Kansas to 2500 J/kg in
   north-central Oklahoma. The instability, along with large-scale
   ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough over the 
   central Plains, will continue to support the MCS for much of the
   morning. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in northeast Oklahoma and
   south-central Kansas have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range
   suggesting that the stronger embedded cells could be supercellular
   and have some severe potential. Hail will be possible with
   supercells. Severe wind gusts will likely be concentrated along
   short bowing line segments. Recently, the MCS has become less
   organized. This trend could continue as inhibition increases,
   resulting in a more isolated and marginal severe threat with time.

   ..Broyles.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   39289573 39109454 38519403 37659395 37139408 36749453
               36469523 36449661 36669755 36939787 37269794 37689779
               38319714 39099637 39289573 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN