Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1223

   Mesoscale Discussion 1223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into far western
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210447Z - 210545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts may persist with ongoing storms for at least
   a few more hours as the storms exceed the eastern bounds of ongoing
   Severe Thunderstorm Watches 359 and 361. A downstream Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS (with mesovortices and
   a pronounced rear-inflow jet) continue to track eastward across
   central KS, with an uptick in convective intensities noted with line
   segments flanking the MCS to the northeast, at the nose of a 700 mb
   WAA regime. These storms are poised to continue tracking eastward
   amid 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and locally lower MLCINH. Given
   widespread 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (oriented normal to the
   MCS leading line) preceding ongoing storms and the aforementioned
   buoyancy, it is plausible that a severe gust threat may continue
   east of the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 359 and 361. This
   may especially be the case because MLCINH may only slowly increase
   in eastern KS given a very moist boundary layer, characterized by
   70+ F surface dewpoints. As such, conditions are being monitored for
   the need of a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38289411 37629463 37519483 37269537 37099617 37089670
               37179694 37369703 39389598 39839543 39999464 39729408
               39079390 38289411 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN