Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas into western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 082137Z - 082230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase along a baroclinic
boundary over the next few hours. Severe wind/hail and perhaps a
tornado will occur with the stronger storms.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have become established
along a broad, diffuse baroclinic boundary in northeast TX into
western LA, with initiation evident west of the DFW Metroplex. MRMS
mosaic radar data depicts 50 dBZ echoes reaching over 50 kft, with
MESH cores exceeding 1 inch in diameter with storms closer to the
TX/LA border. MLCAPE is exceeding 4500 J/kg in proximity to these
storms, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow contributing to 45
kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Given relatively
weak MLCINH, these storms may persist for at least a few hours
despite overall weak deep-layer ascent. Recent FWD VAD shows
modestly elongated hodographs, so supercells should remain the
predominant mode with the more isolated storms. Severe wind and hail
may accompany these storms, and 75+ mph gusts and 3+ inch diameter
hail is possible, along with a tornado.
Although a relatively greater severe threat should materialize this
evening, a shorter-term but appreciable threat does exist with the
ongoing storms, which will necessitate a WW issuance soon.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33119395 32309245 31689265 31579293 31419349 31409376
31749534 32289721 32529899 32899912 33399853 33439771
33669569 33119395
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Source link