Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1196

   Mesoscale Discussion 1196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1002 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...ArkLaTex into south Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191502Z - 191700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe wind gusts is expected to
   increase by late morning into early afternoon. While a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch is not currently anticipated, convective trends
   will be monitored for more organized cold pool development.

   DISCUSSION...Amidst a broader convective precipitation shield, a
   couple of more intense thunderstorm clusters are being observed as
   of 14:55 UTC. One is located west of Texarkana, with the other west
   of Lampasas, TX. The downstream air mass from the ArkLaTex into
   south TX is very moist with dewpoints in the mid 70s to around 80
   with precipitable water values of around two inches. The robust
   moisture coincides with a narrow axis of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
   rates to yield MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg as of 14 UTC. Filtered
   sunshine ahead of the ongoing storms is expected to support further
   air mass destabilization through the remainder of the morning into
   this afternoon.

   Latest short-term model guidance suggests that the leading edge of
   consolidated outflow will continue to support episodic storm
   intensification from the ArkLaTex into south TX, with the greatest
   signal for storm persistence being with the complex over the
   ArkLaTex. Given the presence of the very moist/unstable inflow air
   mass, the potential will exist for locally intense wet microbursts
   capable of a few severe wind gusts. Relatively weak deep-layer shear
   observed by regional VWPs is expected to limit the potential for
   broader-scale cold-pool organization and a resultant greater
   damaging wind threat.

   ..Mead.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30689938 32599712 33569513 33659450 33339297 32669257
               31789313 31259425 30209636 29469776 29519890 30689938 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN