Mesoscale Discussion 1192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Areas affected...Southern/eastern GA and adjacent parts of the FL Panhandle and western SC Concerning...Tornado Watch 354... Valid 190116Z - 190315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 354 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes may continue into the late evening. DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded circulations is moving eastward across central GA as of 0115 UTC. The KJGX VWP continues to depict seasonably strong low/midlevel flow, with favorable low-level veering and 0-1 km SRH near/above 150 m2/s2. Downstream wind profiles are expected to remain favorable through the evening, though earlier convection has resulted in some cooling and stabilization from east-central GA into parts of SC. Some low-level moisture recovery is possible in advance of this QLCS, which may help to sustain this system and result in a continued threat of wind damage and brief tornadoes into the late evening, though the weaker buoyancy with eastward extent results in uncertainty regarding magnitude of the nocturnal threat in this area. The need for a downstream watch is uncertain, and will depend in short-term observations regarding storm organization and any buoyancy recovery. Farther southwest, occasional semi-discrete cells have been noted between Dothan and Tallahassee. Any persistent small supercells could continue to pose a brief tornado threat, given the presence of very rich low-level moisture and favorable low-level shear/SRH. To the west of Dothan, persistent convection has recently surged eastward, with rather strong winds noted at 1 km AGL from KEOX. This convection is largely north of the outflow from earlier convection, resulting in certainty regarding severe-wind potential at the surface, but at least localized wind damage will be possible as this small cluster moves across southeast AL. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33588363 33898312 34058265 34158208 33738173 33428159 32948181 31968272 30978405 30848427 30608485 30588521 30778605 31018627 31268629 31498613 31648573 31908423 32858360 33148362 33588363 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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