Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1185

   Mesoscale Discussion 1185
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast and Southeast

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...

   Valid 181746Z - 181945Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts is
   expected to shift eastward and farther inland with time this
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier embedded supercells across southeastern
   Louisiana/southern Mississippi have congealed into a convective line
   that has begun to surge more eastward and is now entering
   southwestern Alabama. Latest radar data from KMOB has sampled up to
   60-70+ kt inbound velocities at 1-1.5 kft AGL over the past 30
   minutes. This activity is occurring immediately downstream of subtle
   surface meso-low analyzed northeast of New Orleans and along the
   southern flank of the convectively-reinforced, remnant mid-level
   vortex of Tropical Storm Arthur. Expectation is for this convective
   line to progress eastward and eventually inland along a surface
   thermal/buoyancy gradient and in conjunction with an eastward shift
   of the 850 mb jet axis. Rich tropical moisture amid a warm,
   low-level air mass and modestly enhanced effective shear along the
   southern periphery of the mid-level vortex will continue to favor
   maintenance of this convective line along with the potential for
   damaging wind gusts. Curved low-level hodographs and 0-500 m SRH in
   excess of 100 m2/s2 will also promote a continued threat for
   tornadoes, both with this activity and any additional development
   preceding this convective line. Downstream watch extensions and
   eventually a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed to cover these
   threats.

   ..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30168957 30428955 30748924 31398845 32198748 32798663
               33298578 33448550 33418505 33218476 32738457 32108460
               31728475 31008543 30568605 30268646 29968731 29898825
               29938889 29998927 30168957 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH