Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1167

   Mesoscale Discussion 1167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

   Valid 042314Z - 050045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Upscale growth of ongoing thunderstorms appears likely
   this evening. Damaging winds and isolated hail are possible. A new
   downstream watch or an extension of WW390 will likely be needed in a
   couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...As of 23UTC, a cluster of severe thunderstorms was
   ongoing over central KS with additional development occurring along
   the cold front to the west. The environment ahead of these storms
   remains favorable for damaging winds and hail with a broad warm
   sector, large buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for storm
   organization. Thus far, storms have remained ahead of the front, but
   with the front starting to surge southeast, additional development
   and upscale growth appears likely over the next couple of hours.
   Large precipitable water values above 1.5 inches will support strong
   water and hail loaded downdrafts as storms merge. Several measured
   severe gusts have already occurred suggesting the environment is
   likely to remain favorable for damaging gusts this evening,
   especially as stronger cold pools develop. Hi-res guidance shows
   upscale growth into one or more clusters and eventually a line is
   likely as storms move east/southeast toward the OK border. As the
   severe threat is likely to persist into this evening, a new
   downstream watch or extension of WW390 may need to be considered in
   the next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37089892 38369839 39079810 39409789 39589759 39589700
               39349643 39109609 38639534 38239500 37819483 37469487
               37179497 37009502 36939550 36999800 37089892