US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1153

   Mesoscale Discussion 1153
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...southwestern through central Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...

   Valid 032043Z - 032245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385

   SUMMARY...A slowly organizing cluster of thunderstorms will
   overspread much of central Arkansas, including the Little Rock
   vicinity, through 5-7 PM CDT, with a continue risk for strong to
   occasionally severe wind gusts.  Trends will continue to be
   monitored for a possible additional watch downstream, WW 385 could
   be locally extended northeastward through central Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster of storms has become a bit better
   organized, with a developing mesoscale convective vortex now east of
   Fort Smith, and 50 kt west-northwesterly rear inflow in the 1-3 km
   AGL layer evident on the Fort Smith VWP.  The leading edge of the
   convective outflow, and stronger convective development, is still
   advancing eastward at a relatively modest 30+ kt.  However,
   boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing immediately ahead of the
   outflow into central Arkansas, where 2-hourly surface pressure falls
   are maximized (around 3 mb) near Little Rock.  This could support at
   least some further intensification and acceleration into early

   ..Kerr.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33959395 34369348 34999331 35649315 35869248 35509162
               34729139 33449221 33329370 33959395 

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