Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1142

   Mesoscale Discussion 1142
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of New Mexico and West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142019Z - 142215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a
   risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail through this
   evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and regional radar imagery
   depict developing thunderstorms along higher terrain areas from
   western New Mexico into West Texas, with additional thunderstorms
   ongoing along a cold front west of Midland. In central New Mexico,
   dewpoints near 50 F and continued insolation are yielding weak
   buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per the 18z ABQ sounding), with
   modified 18z EPZ/ABQ soundings suggesting lingering inhibition is
   eroding. As convection spreads eastward off of the high terrain,
   well-mixed boundary layer profiles (LCLs close to 3 km) and steep
   low-level lapse rates will support evaporatively-cooled downdrafts
   capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. Modestly strong upper-level
   flow associated with the subtropical jet stream is also supporting
   of 30-35+ kts, which will support some potential for isolated large
   hail when coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of
   around 7.5 C/km. 

   Greater instability exists with southward extent into West Texas,
   with dewpoints increasing into the low-60s F ahead of a surface cold
   front. This is yielding a better overlap of buoyancy and shear
   across the southern portions of the discussion area, which may favor
   a marginally greater severe risk compared to areas farther north.
   Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to the overall
   expectation for the severe risk to remain limited in
   coverage/magnitude.

   ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30490504 31390622 31610655 31680689 31730721 32210732
               34670768 35600763 36080744 36420678 36450643 36410616
               36250604 35770589 35210579 34430579 33430576 33020577
               32620568 32200541 31990520 31840485 31820444 31850407
               31930366 32050339 32160313 32200290 32220271 32170242
               31950228 31870226 31540224 31440228 30560267 29920325
               29710377 29710422 29800462 29980474 30180482 30490504 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN