Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1136

   Mesoscale Discussion 1136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...far eastern Indiana...portions of Ohio...western
   Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 141649Z - 141745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity along and ahead the cold front will
   continue to increase in coverage and intensity. Severe potential
   will increase into the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity ongoing along the cold front from
   central Indiana into western Ohio is increasing in coverage and
   intensity. Ahead of the front, filtered daytime heating has warmed
   temperatures in Ohio into the mid to upper 80s. This in combination
   with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s has yielded MLCAPE around
   500-1000 J/kg. Low-level lapse rates are also steepening, with
   around 7-7.5 C/km analyzed in SPC Mesoanalysis. Increasingly
   favorable thermodynamics in combination with deep layer shear around
   45-50 kts will support storm organization and severe potential
   downstream. Increasingly favorable low-level shear profiles into PA,
   where surface winds have more of a southeasterly component may
   support potential for line embedded circulations and perhaps a
   tornado.  The main hazard will be damaging wind. A watch will will
   be needed soon to cover this potential severe risk.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39408067 39038292 39248470 40018526 40788496 41318431
               41398314 41518201 41578183 41808034 41557961 41157936
               40667941 39877965 39408067 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN