Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1125

   Mesoscale Discussion 1125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...the southern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021658Z - 021900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon along and near a
   remnant outflow boundary. Large hail (some very large), severe wind
   gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from the ongoing convection near
   the Red River continues south across the southern Texas Panhandle
   but is starting to slow. A very moist airmass is in place across
   this region, even north of the outflow boundary. SPC mesoanalysis
   suggests inhibition has eroded across the region and some convection
   has already started to form on the eastern periphery of this outflow
   boundary south of Childress. Given the significant moisture, strong
   instability, and uncapped airmass thunderstorms may continue to
   develop along this outflow boundary which could prompt a watch
   relatively soon. However, it is also possible that more
   widespread/robust convection may not occur until later this
   afternoon as the dryline advances east and the mid-level shortwave
   trough, evident on water vapor across New Mexico, overspreads the
   Panhandle. 

   Any storms which develop will likely be supercellular given 30 to 35
   knots of effective shear. The extreme instability and steep lapse
   rates will support large hail up to the size of baseballs. In
   addition, a localized tornado threat may occur near/the outflow
   boundary where low-level SRH will be maximized.

   A watch will eventually be needed across this region with timing as
   the primary uncertainty at this time. Will monitor trends with
   ongoing convection along the outflow boundary with watch issuance
   likely once a severe threat (greater than isolated) appears
   imminent.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33919960 33459930 32819918 32500020 32730188 33330273
               33840283 34340300 35230313 35650289 35800199 35230079
               34650013 33919960