Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1115

   Mesoscale Discussion 1115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

   Areas affected...Western Kansas and far east-central Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130412Z - 130615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized hail threat may persist for the next few hours
   across western Kansas and perhaps far east-central Colorado. This
   threat is expected to remain fairly spatially confined and isolated;
   watch issuance will likely not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across western Kansas has been monitored
   over the past couple of hours. An initially discrete cell briefly
   intensified and produced golf-ball sized hail before dissipating,
   though more recently additional convection has materialized and
   continues to intensify. The structure and propagation of these cells
   strongly suggests that they are being driven by low-level isentropic
   ascent as the nocturnal jet continues to intensify (per regional
   VWPs). Recent forecast soundings hint that this convection is likely
   rooted between 1-3 km AGL and is realizing the 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE
   in place across western KS. Effective shear within the
   model-depicted CAPE-bearing layer is likely around 50-60 knots,
   which is more than sufficient for organized cells capable of
   producing instances of large hail up to at least 1.75 inches (based
   on observed hail from the initial cell). 

   RAP mesoanalyses suggest that the MUCAPE plume is fairly narrow and
   confined mainly to western KS. The demise of prior convection with
   eastward extent seems to confirm these analyses. Consequently, the
   severe hail threat will likely be spatially limited. However, GOES
   IR imagery shows some percolating cumulus to the west of the ongoing
   cells, hinting that additional, but isolated, convection is possible
   over the next few hours. Given the isolated nature of the threat,
   watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38250157 38390198 38960224 39320220 39500192 39860051
               39770016 39559994 39179979 38839981 38619993 38460022
               38250157 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN