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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1115

Mesoscale Discussion 1115
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Far Southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365...

   Valid 012156Z - 020000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of
   southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi over the next few
   hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Slidell, LA shows
   scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms across
   southern Louisiana. These storms are located in a moderately
   unstable airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE generally from 2000 to
   3000 J/kg. RAP forecasts late this afternoon for the same general
   area have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range, suggesting that
   the convection will remain unorganized. In spite of the limited
   shear, surface dewpoints are in the 70 to 75 F degree range, and
   low-level lapse rates are steep. This should be enough for isolated
   damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible. The threat is
   expected to become more isolated by early evening as the airmass
   gradually turns over.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30339220 30799188 30949122 30578994 30118901 29688882
               29228923 29118976 29329117 29739220 30339220 

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