Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024
Areas affected...Parts of far west into southwest TX...southeast NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 011848Z - 012015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected later this afternoon,
with a threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway early this
afternoon from southwest into far west TX and southeast NM.
Low-level southeasterly flow will support continued moistening
through the afternoon beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting
in moderate to strong destabilization. As CINH continues to weaken
with time and a subtle subtropical shortwave trough approaches from
the west, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected by mid to late afternoon.
Midlevel westerly flow is generally modest across the region, though
somewhat stronger with southward extent into the Trans-Pecos and
southern parts of the Permian Basin. A couple of supercells may
evolve out of initial convection and move east-southeastward, with
an attendant threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. The
threat for very large hail (potentially 2 - 3.5 inches in diameter)
may become maximized across parts of the Trans-Pecos region from 4-6
PM CDT, when a supercell or two is expected to mature across that
region. Finally, while low-level flow/shear will generally remain
weak, a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with any supercell
that can propagate into the richer low-level moisture.
Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT, in response to the threats
described above.
..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30760467 32460537 33520539 34230391 33980264 33280225
31910200 29690177 29570249 28950288 28900353 29120384
29640454 30760467