Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1106

   Mesoscale Discussion 1106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121748Z - 121945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms and a risk of occasional
   damaging wind gusts are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
   and Northeast this afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing
   thunderstorm development across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
   Northeast along a surface cold front and prefrontal trough. This
   activity is occurring as weak mid-level height falls begin to
   overspread the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough
   progressing across the Great Lakes region. While mid-level lapse
   rates will remain weak, strong surface heating and dewpoints around
   70 F will support 1000 to locally 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating
   this afternoon as convection evolves eastward. While stronger
   deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the north, modest mid-level
   westerlies of 25-35 kts and steepening low-level lapse rates will
   promote the potential for multicell clusters capable of occasional
   damaging wind gusts. Currently, the greatest potential appears
   likely to manifest across southeastern New York and adjacent areas
   where the best overlap of modestly stronger mid-level flow and
   greater buoyancy may develop.

   A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for portions of the
   discussion area within the next 1-2 hours to cover these threats.
   More uncertainty exists regarding watch issuance farther south into
   southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey where latest
   guidance indicates a relative minimum in convective coverage could
   occur.

   ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40857626 41097631 41407632 41697625 42197594 42587567
               43237521 43677461 43787433 43837408 43807371 43757340
               43567300 43327268 43107249 42797235 42377244 41577291
               40757347 40357380 40207409 40157449 40177490 40257543
               40417580 40647607 40857626 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH