US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1106

   Mesoscale Discussion 1106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1050 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Areas affected...Middle/upper TX coast vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011550Z - 011745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat could continue and possibly increase in
   coverage this afternoon, with a threat of damaging wind, hail, and
   possibly a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm cluster that earlier evolved near
   Port O'Connor is moving offshore late this morning. Some convection
   is spreading northeastward out of this cluster (possibly aided by
   outflow), while a couple of small supercells are ongoing near the
   coast across Matagorda/Brazoria Counties. Some deepening cumulus is
   also noted closer to Galveston Bay, within an increasingly uncapped

   Storm evolution into the afternoon remains uncertain across the
   area, but based on current trends, some increase in storm coverage
   and intensity appears plausible with time and northeastward extent
   toward the upper TX coast. Some redevelopment will also be possible
   farther south, along the trailing outflow from the ongoing storm

   Very rich low-level moisture, strong to locally extreme buoyancy,
   and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential
   for organized convection, including a couple supercells and/or
   stronger clusters with an attendant risk of isolated damaging wind,
   hail, and possibly a tornado (though low-level flow/shear is
   expected to remain rather weak). Watch issuance is possible if
   larger corridor of severe potential becomes evident.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28559544 27669683 27599792 28029795 29539679 30319478
               30469382 29629379 29409431 29089469 28999488 28559544 

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