Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Areas affected...Eastern CO/Far Southeast WY/Northeast NM to western
OK/TX Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 312000Z - 312130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon, initially across northeast New Mexico and eastern
Colorado, and possibly far southeast Wyoming. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is likely for at least parts of the region.
DISCUSSION...An expanding and deepening cu field continues to
develop across the Colorado/northeast New Mexico mountains, where
incipient thunderstorm development is noted, toward the Raton Mesa
vicinity. Upper 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints are generally
present across the adjacent High Plains, with ample insolation
yielding weakening boundary layer inhibition and a trend toward
moderate destabilization.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the next few hours (into 3-5pm MDT), somewhat preferentially across
the Raton Mesa vicinity, and northward toward the Palmer Divide. A
few late-day/early evening severe storms might even occur in the
evolving post-frontal regime/near a surface low across southeast
Wyoming, even with persistent low clouds and formidable inhibition
currently in place across far northeast Colorado into southeast
Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle.
Easterly near-surface winds beneath modest strength westerlies will
generally yield 35-45 kt of effective shear, sufficient for
supercells and sustained multicells, although weaker westerlies will
exist southward into and across eastern New Mexico. Large hail can
be expected, and a brief tornado risk may also exist. Multiple
southeastward-moving clusters should evolve regionally by early
evening with severe-caliber wind gusts also a possibility.
..Guyer/Smith.. 05/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
LAT...LON 41180466 40390325 38900320 36680264 35460263 34970371
35370511 36440475 38220506 39950511 41180466