Mesoscale Discussion 1084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Areas affected...The High Plains of southeast Colorado and
southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302241Z - 302345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms, including one or two
transient supercells, may develop over the next 1-2 hours across
portions of southeast CO and southwest KS. Large hail near
1.25-2.00" in diameter, wind gusts up to 65 mph, and a landspout or
two will be possible.
DISCUSSION...A couple of relatively robust thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon in the lee of the Rockies near PUB, and
along an outflow boundary and surface low intersection across far
southwest KS. Additional towering CU are also beginning to develop
east of PUB. Daytime heating and cooler mid-level temperatures
aloft/steep mid-level lapse, combined with surface dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s, have contributed to moderate MLCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg. Although weaker mid to upper-level flow is only
yielding around 25-30 kt of deep layer effective shear, a slow
increase is anticipated through this evening.
This environment could support transient supercells with a threat of
large hail and localized severe wind gusts. In addition, enhanced
surface vorticity combined with modest low-level cape may present an
opportunity for a landspout tornado or two. However, limited
thunderstorm coverage may preclude the need for a WW at this time.
..Barnes/Hart.. 05/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36990338 37520403 38310472 38610472 38870408 39870274
39970195 39870098 38500031 38200021 37480020 37020001
36960332 36990338