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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1078

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Mesoscale Discussion 1078
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1078
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301750Z - 301945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms organizing into a line or bow are expected
   to develop and shift south/southeast through early evening. Damaging
   gusts and large hail will be possible with this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is developing along an outflow boundary
   stretching across the Texas South Plains into north-central Texas.
   This boundary is being reinforced and shunted southward from ongoing
   convection over northwest Texas. Low-level flow ahead of the outflow
   is not overly strong at only about 10 kt from the south/southeast.
   As a result, the outflow may continue to shift south through the
   afternoon. This is resulting in some uncertainty, as outflow may
   outpace developing convection along the boundary. CAMs guidance
   differs in the evolution of the boundary and convection tied to it.
   Nevertheless, a moist and very unstable airmass is in place
   downstream. Vertical shear will also increase modestly through the
   afternoon. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential from a
   developing bowing line of storms is present. Severe gusts to 80 mph
   and isolated large hail will be possible should a well-organized,
   southward-propagating band of storms develop. Trends will be
   monitored and a watch will likely be needed this afternoon, though
   timing is a bit uncertain.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30640074 30770095 31220136 32060142 32320128 32510111
               32499931 32489822 32209786 31549745 31099721 30809717
               30529720 30359740 30249759 30089876 30289971 30640074 

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