Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 107

   Mesoscale Discussion 0107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161052Z - 161315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are expected this morning across
   parts western and central South Carolina. Weather watch issuance
   remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a squall line
   across parts of central Georgia extending northeastward into far
   western South Carolina. The line is being supported by strong
   large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and by
   forcing along a fast-moving cold front. Ahead of the line,
   instability is very weak, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F across
   western South Carolina and northeast Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWP
   at Greenville/Spartanburg has about 85 knot of 0-6 km shear with 40
   to 50 knots of south-southwesterly flow located just above the
   surface. An isolated wind-damage threat will be possible with the
   stronger cells within the line. Given the very strong low-level
   shear, meso-scale vorticies will be possible in the line with
   embedded cells that remain surface-based. However, forecast
   soundings in far western South Carolina have a sharp near surface
   temperature inversion, which should keep any severe threat isolated
   and localized.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35208161 35168219 35048258 34768279 34268314 33768337
               33478343 33058296 33018208 33158120 33408066 33838035
               34298023 34458026 34728042 34848055 35088106 35208161
               35208161