Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1052

   Mesoscale Discussion 1052
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

   Areas affected...parts of far eastern Illinois and central and
   southern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100005Z - 100200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms may produce occasional damaging
   gusts this evening. Storm organization will be limited and a WW is
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 00 UTC, regional radar data showed a cluster of
   stronger thunderstorms near a remnant MCV over parts of the upper
   Wabash Valley. The environment is moderately unstable, owing to mid
   70s F surface dewpoints. However, vertical shear is not particularly
   strong. With bulk shear generally below 25 kt, the observed
   cluster/multicell storm mode should continue this evening. 

   Storms will move eastward across central and southern IN toward the
   OH/KY border later this evening. Some upscale growth may support a
   risk for occasional damaging gusts with water-loaded downdrafts.
   However, the lack of broader organization should keep storm
   organization and the overall severe risk isolated. These storms
   should also begin to weaken with the loss of diurnal heating later
   tonight. Thus, while some risk for damaging winds is possible, a WW
   is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39998735 40638680 40708606 40538534 40298497 40068487
               39678485 39228495 38898547 38658620 38678694 38868752
               39068782 39268786 39998735 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH