Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1049

   Mesoscale Discussion 1049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of south-central TX and the Middle Texas
   Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281859Z - 282100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for strong gusts and hail
   through late afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along an outflow
   boundary approaching the Middle Texas Coast vicinity. Visible
   satellite shows towering cumulus developing westward along the
   boundary across south-central TX. A similar environment to that
   across southeast TX where widespread severe is ongoing is present
   across this area as well. A hot (mid/upper 90s) and very moist (70s
   F dewpoints) boundary-layer is contributing to strong instability
   (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). A pocket of steep low-level lapse rates is
   also present in latest SPC Mesoanalysis data. 

   Initial thunderstorm activity has struggled to intensify and it is
   unclear if additional storms will develop. If more storms develop
   and clustering occurs, damaging wind potential will exist. Trends
   will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   27659694 27619733 27729786 27909827 28559890 29339951
               29819947 29679852 29529692 28679627 28229641 27659694