Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1047

   Mesoscale Discussion 1047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281840Z - 282015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across western TX.
   Supercells capable of all severe hazards are expected, and a Tornado
   Watch will be issued soon.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway ahead of the dryline
   across the western TX Panhandle, where convective outflow
   progressing westward from earlier storms is providing enhanced lift.
   These storms are developing amid an environment characterized by 8+
   C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg amid
   50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells are expected to evolve
   through the afternoon, accompanied by large hail (some stones
   exceeding 2 inches in diameter), along with severe gusts and a few
   tornadoes. With time, storms may merge into an MCS later this
   afternoon. Should this occur, severe gusts will become the main
   threat.

   A Tornado watch will be issued shortly to address the severe threat.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33279996 33030048 33020167 33180266 33350286 34060286
               34610253 34680110 34660061 34550025 33279996