Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1047

   Mesoscale Discussion 1047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

   Areas affected...portions of extreme northeastern New Mexico...far
   southeastern Colorado...northern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma
   Panhandle...southwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 091846Z - 092115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts is increasing as high-based
   storms develop through the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   will eventually be needed to address the impending threat.

   DISCUSSION...The boundary layer continues to mix and deepen over the
   southern High Plains, as surface temperatures approach 100 F, with
   50 T/Td spreads supporting 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates and over
   1500 J/kg DCAPE. Very strong evaporative cooling potential exists
   ahead of an approaching 500 mb longwave trough, which is poised to
   glance the region to the north. As such, scattered to numerous
   high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of
   the southern High Plains over the next few hours, and will become
   capable of producing severe (58+ mph) gusts, a few of which may
   exceed 75 mph. If convective cells can become deep enough, a few
   instances of hail may also occur.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34940399 35620427 36650414 37740385 38280342 38970134
               38900069 38570019 38039998 37399992 36610023 35860069
               35290134 34870201 34690255 34650307 34700350 34940399 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN