Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1012

   Mesoscale Discussion 1012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

   Areas affected...northeastern Montana and northwest North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

   Valid 070254Z - 070500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue much of this evening into
   the overnight hours. Hail and damaging gusts are likely. Some
   significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW283, several strong to severe storms have
   developed and intensified along a sagging frontal zone over the last
   several hours. The environment along both sides of the front in MT
   and ND is strongly unstable, (max MUCAPE ~3000 J/kg) with steep
   mid-level lapse rates. Vertical shear is also quite robust (50-60 kt
   EBWD) as the main belt of 50+ kt mid-level flow continues to
   overspread the frontal zone. A strengthening nocturnal low-level jet
   will also aid in further intensification of the ongoing convection
   this evening and into the early overnight hours.

   Radar trends show the initial stages of upscale growth along the
   front are underway. As the storms interact, they should merge into
   organized clusters and possibly a bowing segment or two. This
   appears most likely near the boundary and northeastward where
   low-level convergence will be maximized.

   The strong buoyancy and kinematic parameter space will likely favor
   efficient downdrafts with the potential for a damaging wind threat
   late this evening into the early overnight period from northeastern
   MT, northwest ND toward the international border. Severe gusts, with
   a few significant gusts to 75+ mph are possible and supported by
   recent CAM solutions. Some hail risk may also remain with the more
   cellular elements.

   ..Lyons.. 06/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46440655 47270760 48050719 48660666 49100630 49080534
               49070186 48970187 47490303 46030393 46440655 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN