Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1011

   Mesoscale Discussion 1011
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

   Areas affected...lfar eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070058Z - 070200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally enhanced low-level shear could support sporadic
   damaging gusts or a brief tornado with a band of thunderstorms this
   evening. Broader organization is unlikely and a Watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Early evening radar imagery showed a band of storms had
   developed near a remnant MCV across portions of far eastern OK and
   western AR. A very moist environment is in place with dewpoints in
   the 70s F. This is supporting low cloud bases and moderate buoyancy
   with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Locally backed low-level flow near
   the MCV is enhancing low-level shear with the SRX VAD showing
   100-200 m2/s2 of ESRH. This is supporting weak storm-based rotation
   within the band of storms. While the lack of broader ascent and
   deep-layer shear should keep storm organization limited/transient,
   sporadic damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible over the
   next couple of hours. Given the short duration and local risk, a WW
   is not expected.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35069461 35759484 36179491 36339450 36169375 35829332
               35429309 35009304 34379356 34269389 34219420 34309427
               34589448 35069461 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH