MD 1512 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MT VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...Southwest into southern/central MT vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051907Z - 052100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon while spreading from southwest Montana into
central portions of the state through evening. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be possible, though a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating into the 80s amid steep midlevel lapse
rates is supporting weak destabilization early this afternoon across
the higher terrain of southwest MT and vicinity. Isolated
thunderstorms are developing over the higher terrain within 30-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes, and coverage should increase as storms
track toward the northeast. Fast-moving storms may pose a risk for
strong winds through the afternoon, particularly given large
temperature-dewpoint spread and steepening low-level lapse rates.
However, instability will remain weak and limit greater organized
severe potential.
..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 44771436 46091287 47201044 47650887 47560802 46750748
45790740 45370792 45001134 43991350 43981385 44301438
44771436
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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