MD 1023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS…SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest
Missouri...northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 080533Z - 080730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scatted convection driven by warm advection could
occasionally become severe and produce wind damage and,
conditionally, a tornado. The need for a watch is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection has increased within the
MO/KS/AR/OK region this evening. Widely scattered storms have
developed in response to the low-level jet. The airmass is quite
moist with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F. As such, MLCIN is fairly
minimal. The moderate to strong low-level advection has increased
SRH per regional VAD data. While conditional, the tornado threat is
not zero. However, isolated wind damage is likely the primary hazard
with these storms. Some guidance has suggested that enough storm
development will occur that a cold pool could develop. Should this
happen, a small MCS could track into more of Arkansas where greater
buoyancy resides.
..Wendt/Hart.. 06/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 35929565 36059650 36559674 37489623 37559468 37109357
36449318 35949325 35649394 35929565
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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