Hurricane Vance Forecast Advisory Number 15

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 250244
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 103.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.2N 103.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 105.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 105.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.6N 106.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI