Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory Number 22

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 122050
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
2100 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.9N 107.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   5SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 107.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.2N 106.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 106.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 13/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN