Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062031 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026 Rachel continues to be impacted by northeasterly wind shear and dry mid-level air. Recent satellite imagery shows that the northern portion of the circulation is eroding, with the eye now open on the northern side. Cloud-top temperatures have warmed, and deep convection is now primarily confined to the southern semicircle. The latest satellite intensity estimates range between 73 and 85 kt. Given the degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is westward, or 275/6 kt. Rachel is being steered west-northwestward by a subtropical ridge located over the western United States, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Thereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to approach the U.S. West Coast, which will erode the western portion of the ridge. This should cause Rachel to slow down, turn sharply toward the northeast, and then re-accelerate. The latest NHC track forecast lies very close to the previous official forecast, though it has been nudged slightly right and faster at the end of the period which trends towards the HCCA and GDMI track aids. Dry air entrainment is steadily eroding the convection, and the surrounding air mass is forecast to remain dry and stable. Although wind shear may briefly relax, the cyclone will soon be traversing cooler sea surface temperatures. Given the combination of these hostile environmental conditions, a steady weakening trend is anticipated. Convection is expected to become increasingly intermittent and disorganized, and the system is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4. The official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous, showing gradual then steady weakening throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 20.5N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 20.7N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 21.8N 123.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.3N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 22.6N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 22.9N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.9N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/1800Z 28.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kelly
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