Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026
737 WTPZ43 KNHC 060840 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective structure has degraded over the past several hours. The eye has become obscured, while the surrounding deep convection has weakened, particularly over the western semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T4.5/77 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest objective estimates. Given these data and the continued degraded satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. The initial motion is westward, or 270/7 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days while a subtropical ridge remains the primary steering feature. By late this week and into the weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the United States. This pattern change should cause Rachel to slow down, turn sharply northeastward, and accelerate toward the Baja California Peninsula late in the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids. Drier and more stable air, along with moderate easterly vertical wind shear, have begun to take a toll on Rachel's convective structure. These factors, combined with progressively cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should result in a steady weakening trend through the forecast period. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports this scenario, showing Rachel struggling to maintain deep convection later this week and into the weekend. As a result, Rachel is forecast to become post-tropical by day 5 as it accelerates toward the northern Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, with only minor adjustments, and lies near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 20.3N 118.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 20.4N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 20.7N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 22.6N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.7N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 26.9N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Gibbs
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