Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026
877 WTPZ43 KNHC 060235 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 The visible satellite presentation for Rachel has become far less impressive than it was earlier today. The eye of the hurricane has started to fill in again and the deep convection has become asymmetric based on the infrared imagery. Using a combination of the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 80 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving westward at 8 kt steered by a high pressure system to the north-northeast of the cyclone. This area of high pressure is expected to keep Rachel moving generally westward to west-northwestward for the next several days. However, towards the end of the week, that high pressure system should weaken as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the United States. As a result, Rachel is expected to slow down and then turn northeastward at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is similar to the previous track, but adjusted based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. The cyclone is expected to move into a region with drier air and significantly cooler sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, the current NHC intensity forecast has Rachel progressively weakening in a similar trend to the previous forecast. The intensity forecast is on the upper end of the guidance envelope, but is very close to the HCCA forecast aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 20.4N 117.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 21.8N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 22.2N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 22.7N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 24.2N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
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