Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Oct 04 2026
464 WTPZ43 KNHC 042032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM MST Sun Oct 04 2026 Rachel has not changed much during the past several hours. The hurricane continues to have a well established inner core, but the eye has become a little more cloud-filled and ragged compared to this morning. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 85 to 97 kt, and based on that data and the relatively steady state appearance of the system, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt. A 1616 UTC ASCAT-B was helpful in adjusting the initial wind radii. The hurricane has turned westward over the past several hours, with the initial motion now estimated to be 270/5 kt. A high pressure system to the north of Rachel should keep the system on a slow westward track through the middle of the week. After that time, the high is expected to weaken and shift eastward as a trough cuts off near the southern California coast, which should allow Rachel to turn back to the west-northwest by the end of the week. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies near the best-performing models of the year so far, HCCA and GDMI. Rachel will likely maintain its strength through tonight. However, as the hurricane moves farther west, it will be entering a progressively drier airmass and moving over sub 26C waters in a couple of days. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through the week. The NHC intensity forecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.1N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.2N 115.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 20.3N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.4N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 20.6N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 21.4N 122.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 22.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 22.6N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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