Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Oct 03 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM MST Sat Oct 03 2026 Rachel has become less organized during the past several hours. The associated convection is now occurring only over the southern semicircle, and the latest microwave imagery indicates that there is no longer any eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 70-90 kt range and are trending downward. Based on the trend, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt. The initial motion is 275/4 kt. A mid-level anticyclone over the western United States has a ridge extending southwest to the west of Rachel, and this anticyclone is expected to build westward during the next 72 h. This evolution should steer the cyclone slowly west-northwestward for the next day or two, followed by a more westward motion. By 96-120 h, a west-northwestward motion is likely to resume as Rachel approaches the western end of the ridge. The new forecast track is close to the previous forecast for 48-60 h, and then is nudged a little south based on a southward shift in the guidance envelope. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 h as Rachel continues to experience northeasterly shear and crosses the cold water wake of Hurricane Polo. After that, the sea surface temperatures increase slightly at a time where the hurricane is likely to entrain dry air. These competing factors are expected to result in little net change in strength between 36-72 h. After 72 h, Rachel should move over progressively colder water and continue to entrain dry air, which should cause a steady weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 111.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.6N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.9N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.1N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.2N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 20.4N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 20.6N 118.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 21.2N 121.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 22.2N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Source link