Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021451 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026 Rachel's inner core looks slightly less impressive on satellite imagery than it did 6 to 12 hours ago. The eyewall is not very tight and compact, with areas of dry air intrusion possibly affecting the eyewall. The latest TAFB current intensity estimate is 5.5/102 kt, but the final-T number is 4.5/77 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging from 80-95 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt, which is 5 kt lower than the previous NHC advisory. The cyclone is still moving slowly westward at 265/5 kt and will be making its closest approach to Socorro Island today. This motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over the weekend and into early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to the north. A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast by Monday as the ridge begins to weaken. The track guidance remains in fair agreement on this scenario, although some differences remain in the timing of the increase in forward speed by early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies near the HCCA aid. The NHC forecast is a bit to the south of the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. Moderate east-northeasterly vertical wind shear might be helping some dry mid-level air to entrain into Rachel's core, which seems to be causing the eyewall to become a bit more spread out and diffuse compared to 12 hours ago. These conditions are not forecast to abate during the next 24 hours. All the guidance shows weakening during the next 24 hours, and so does the official forecast, which is about 15 kt lower than the previous NHC prediction at hour 12 and 24. This forecast remains near the high end of the guidance. Beyond hour 24 the shear should relax somewhat, which should allow Rachel to maintain hurricane intensity for the next 4 days or so. The latest forecast flatlines the intensity at 70 kt from hour 36 to day 4, which is also near the high end of the guidance, but lower than the previous NHC forecast. It should be noted that the HAFS models, HWRF and HMON show Rachel weakening to a tropical storm within the next 24 hours, and then staying at tropical storm strength through the period. After day 4, Rachel will move across the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm toward cooler water while also reaching a progressively drier mid-level airmass. These conditions should cause Rachel to weaken to a tropical storm by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.3N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.3N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.3N 116.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 20.8N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
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