Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301456 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Rachel has a large and elliptical central dense overcast with cloud tops of colder than -80C. The storm also has a lot of outer banding, particularly in the western semicircle. However, despite the well-organized appearance, shear analyses suggest the cyclone is still experiencing 15-20 kt of easterly to northeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are currently in the 60-77 kt range, and the initial intensity is set at 75 kt based on these and continuity from the previous advisory. The initial motion is northwestward or 315/8. Rachel continues to move along the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge over northern and central Mexico. This ridge is weakening due to the effects of a large mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As this trough moves northeastward and weakens during the next couple of days, this should allow another ridge to build to the north of the tropical cyclone. As a result, Rachel is forecast to turn west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula before continuing westward away from land. The new forecast track has minor nudges from the previous track, and it lies generally near the center of the track guidance envelope. Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the hurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible negative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler water left by Polo. Later on the forecast period, decreasing sea surface temperatures under the forecast track and dry air entrainment could cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of Mexico and the coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued, wind gust of tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. 2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.8N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 19.7N 110.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.9N 110.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 20.0N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.2N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 20.5N 115.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 20.7N 117.4W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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