Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
575
FOPZ12 KNHC 241439
PWSEP2
HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 16(42)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 30(58)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21)
BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36)
GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 20(20) 63(83) 9(92) X(92) X(92)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 17(68) X(68) X(68)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 15(43) X(43) X(43)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 6(43)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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