Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260255 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 ...POLO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 110.1W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 298 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta Eugenia southward to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 110.1 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Saturday and north on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur. Data from a NOAA research aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Saturday. Slow weakening is expected after that, but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA aircraft is 911 mb (26.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday evening, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the watch area overnight Sunday into Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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