Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 290234 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 Polo is about to make landfall on Baja California Sur. Heavy rains and hurricane-force winds have already spread across the peninsula, and the worst conditions will likely occur in the hurricane warning area within the next few hours. Polo is not as well organized as it was earlier, with the eye filling in satellite images. The initial intensity is held at 100 kt near the high end of the latest satellite estimates, but this could be a little generous. The hurricane is moving northeastward at 11 kt, and that motion with an increase in forward speed is expected as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S. This track should take the system across Baja California and the Gulf of California tonight and then inland over the Mexican state of Sonora Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this one remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Little change in strength is expected before Polo makes landfall on Baja California Sur. However, the combination of land interaction and increasing vertical wind shear should cause Polo to rapidly weaken overnight, but it is still expected to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in Sonora Tuesday morning. Polo should quickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico later on Tuesday, and even though a 24-hour position is provided, it seems unlikely that the hurricane will still be around by then. Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast about to make landfall as a major hurricane on the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Residents should remain in a safe shelter. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread into mainland Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday. A dangerous storm surge is expected in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora tonight and Tuesday. This rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains tonight into Tuesday. 3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas. 4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 25.9N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 27.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 31.0N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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