Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
194 WTPZ42 KNHC 280854 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 Polo has remained fairly steady over the past 6 hours in terms of its overall convective structure. The ragged eye and inner core have perhaps only become slightly less impressive. The TAFB current intensity number is 5.5/102 kt and recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates are in the 90-100 kt range. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 100 kt. The major hurricane is now moving north-northeastward at 9 kt on the western side of a mid-level ridge that is situated over northern Mexico. Polo is forecast to turn northeastward by this afternoon as a trough amplifies over California, taking the core of the hurricane over the Baja California Peninsula late this afternoon or evening. Polo is then expected to briefly pass over the Gulf of California before making a second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday morning. The latest NHC forecast is on top of the previous forecast, but slightly slower, and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) guidance. The SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses are currently diagnosing less than 10 kt of vertical wind shear over Polo. The shear is expected to increase to about 15 to 18 kt by the time Polo makes landfall in Baja California Sur, but thermodynamic conditions aren't expected to change much. Most of the guidance indicates slight weakening over the next 12 to 18 hours. The most likely scenario for the intensity at landfall in Baja California is around 95 kt, but there is also a chance that Polo could maintain its current intensity until it makes landfall. Land interaction with the peninsula and an increase in wind shear should cause some weakening, but Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. After the second landfall, rapid weakening is forecast over the rugged terrain of Mexico. The official intensity forecast is only slightly lower than the previous one up until the first landfall, and then is similar to the previous forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the guidance. Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States during the next few days, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula near major hurricane strength late today, within the Hurricane Warning area. Conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate there this morning, making further preparations difficult. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Baja California through today through tonight, and into mainland Mexico late tonight into early Tuesday. A storm surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late today into Tuesday. 3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 23.6N 113.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 26.7N 111.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...EAST COAST OF BAJA 36H 29/1800Z 29.5N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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