Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
576 WTPZ42 KNHC 240245 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 The changes to the satellite presentation of Polo this evening indicate the hurricane has significantly strengthened. The symmetric eye has gradually cleared out and warmed, and it is now surrounded by a thick ring of very deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -75 to -80 deg C. The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have quickly increased this evening as a result, and the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, making Polo a category 5 hurricane once again. Polo has taken a slow north-northwestward jog this evening, but the long-term motion remains northwestward (320/5 kt). The short-term track forecast has been nudged slightly northward to account for the northward jog. A mid-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico is expected to gradually build westward during the next couple of days, which should steer Polo to the northwest and west-northwest away from mainland Mexico through Friday night. Then, an upper-level trough is forecast to approach the west coast of the United States this weekend. This will weaken the steering ridge and cause Polo to turn toward the northwest and north later in the forecast period, bringing the center toward Baja California Sur. However, there is still quite a bit of along- and cross-track spread regarding the details of this anticipated turn. The long-range portion of the track forecast remains close to the previous one, closely following the HCCA and TVCN aids through 96 h. Now that Polo has completed an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some additional near-term strengthening could occur with conducive environmental and oceanic conditions in place. The updated NHC forecast accounts for this potential and lies on the upper end of the guidance. Of course, strong hurricanes like Polo can also be susceptible to intensity fluctuations related to internal dynamic processes like ERCs that are difficult to predict. Regardless, there is high confidence that Polo will remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few days. Vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over the hurricane in 48-72 h, and a somewhat faster rate of weakening is shown thereafter. Overall, the NHC intensity forecast follows the multi-model trends and lies on the higher end of the envelope for most of the period. The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions of the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo tonight into early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.0N 102.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.7W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.9N 105.6W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.1N 107.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 109.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 17.9N 111.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.2N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 22.5N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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