Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230834 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 Satellite images indicate that Polo remains a powerful major hurricane. The cyclone continues to maintain a distinct, circular, and clear eye. However, the convection in the eyewall is not quite as intense as it had been over the past 24 hours. Although there have not been any recent microwave images available, there are still signs in geostationary satellite data that the system has a double eyewall structure. The initial intensity is set at 135 kt, which is in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates. The far northern bands are brushing up against the southwestern coast of Mexico, and ASCAT data show winds to tropical storm force just off the coast. The cyclone has moved little over the past several hours, however, a building mid-level ridge over Mexico and the south-central U.S. should cause Polo to turn northwestward or west-northwestward later today. This motion should take the center of the hurricane just off the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Even though the intense core of Polo should stay offshore, outer rainbands are likely to spread across southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds. Polo should pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula Friday and Saturday, and then likely turn northward when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is near a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCA aids. Fluctuations in strength seems likely over the next day or so, due to internal dynamics, while the major hurricane remains in favorable environmental conditions. However, a gradual weakening trend is expected after that time due to an increase in easterly vertical wind shear and slightly drier air. Nonetheless, Polo is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.0N 101.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.4N 102.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.7N 107.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.3N 110.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 19.4N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 22.4N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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