Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261446 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026 The structure of Odalys this morning appears to be quickly going downhill. The small eye that had been associated with the hurricane is no longer seen on geostationary satellite imagery. An earlier AMSR3 microwave pass also showed the inner core has degraded as southerly vertical wind shear quickly increases, now diagnosed at 32 kt by UW-CIMSS. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are decreasing, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt for this advisory. With the abrupt increase in shear, Odalys is likely to continue rapidly weakening in the short-term. Most of the model guidance shows the vertical structure decoupling in the next 24-36 h as shear imports nearby dry air is into the circulation's core. The NHC intensity forecast was lowered quite a bit form the previous one, partially due to the lower initial intensity, but also with the expectation the small tropical cyclone will quickly succumb to the unfavorable environment. The latest forecast now shows Odalys becoming a remnant low in 48 h and dissipating by the mid portion of next week. The hurricane continues to move northward, with an estimated motion at 360 degree at 6 kt. A deep-layer trough to its northwest should maintain this general steering for the next 12-24 h, though as the the system decouples and becomes vertically shallow it should turn sharply back to the southeast or even south as it becomes more influenced by broad low-level ridging to its northwest. The latest NHC track is shifted slightly north in the short-term, but was also shifted westward after Odalys become a remnant low, following the latest trends in the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) guidance. Distant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.8N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.7N 123.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 21.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 19.0N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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